Analysis of the most affected countries in South America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $260,810$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(9.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{307,468.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 77.7)}}\) (asimptote \(307,468.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,404$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(293 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 78.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,015.9\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $103,969$ on 2020-06-23

Brazil

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,145,906$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,675,684.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,675,684.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52,645$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,943.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 72.7)}}\) (asimptote \(62,943.3\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $465,298$ on 2020-06-23

Ecuador

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,643$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(6.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,147.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,147.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,274$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(363 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,070.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,070.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,378$ on 2020-06-23

Chile

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,767$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{617,876.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 110.7)}}\) (asimptote \(617,876.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,505$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,610.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,610.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,692$ on 2020-06-23

Bolivia

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,389$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(223 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,304.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 94.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,304.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $846$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(20.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,749.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,749.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,243$ on 2020-06-23

Colombia

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $73,760$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340,728.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.6)}}\) (asimptote \(340,728.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,524$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(62.6 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,719$ on 2020-06-23

Argentina

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,203$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(497 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,078$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(63.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,680.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,680.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,549$ on 2020-06-23

Suriname

Population $586,632$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $319$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(0.104 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{374.2}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 91.2)}}\) (asimptote \(374.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-23

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $178$ on 2020-06-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Paraguay recovered 23%

Paraguay

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,422$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(115 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(26.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,489.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 63.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,489.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13$ on 2020-06-23

Best fit exponential: \(4.85 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 22.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $483$ on 2020-06-23