Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $260,810$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(9.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{307,468.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 77.7)}}\) (asimptote \(307,468.6\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,404$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(293 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,015.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 78.3)}}\) (asimptote \(11,015.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $103,969$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,145,906$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,675,684.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,675,684.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $52,645$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,943.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 72.7)}}\) (asimptote \(62,943.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $465,298$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,643$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(6.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{47,147.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 50.5)}}\) (asimptote \(47,147.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,274$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(363 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,070.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,070.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,378$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,767$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(1.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{617,876.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 110.7)}}\) (asimptote \(617,876.1\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,505$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(15.5 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,610.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(10,610.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,692$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,389$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(223 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,304.5}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 94.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,304.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $846$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(20.3 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,749.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 87.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,749.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,243$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $73,760$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(996 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340,728.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.6)}}\) (asimptote \(340,728.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,524$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(62.6 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,719$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,203$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(497 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.2\) days)
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,078$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(63.3 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,680.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 103.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,680.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,549$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $319$ on 2020-06-23
Best fit exponential: \(0.104 \times 10^{0.035t}\) (doubling rate \(8.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{374.2}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 91.2)}}\) (asimptote \(374.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $178$ on 2020-06-23
